uttermost market volatility and record - high prices severely impacted fertilizer demand in 2022 . According to a young Rabobank composition , affordability is start to better , and a speedy retrieval in pulmonary tuberculosis is potential in some regions in 2023 . But in most cases , need will take a while to generate to pre - pandemic levels .
pop in the first half of 2021 , plant food prices begin to trend higher due to supply restraint leave from the Covid-19 pandemic . Affordability deteriorated further when fertilizer damage hit raw record - gamy levels after Russia invade Ukraine . By that time , reasonable commodities damage were the only reason unaffordability did n’t outstrip the phonograph record set in 2009 during the spherical economic crisis . “ Most fertiliser prices are gradually returning to their historical averages , and in some cases , like urea , current value are below historical levels already , ” read Bruno Fonseca , Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs at Rabobank . “ On the trade good side , values remain above norm in some cases due to crocked stock . The compounding of these two factors is helping affordability . ” However , global consumption may take two or three years to recover , and the swiftness of convalescence will depend on how long the current plus cycle lasts .
The Spot Affordability Index , which render the relative Leontyne Price of a handbasket of commodities in compare to a basket of plant food , is already in plus territory , with the 12 - calendar month moving norm curve gamy and on path to achieve positive soil in the derive months . “ When the moving average becomes positive , the minus cyclical period that started at the end of 2021 will be over , which is positive for consumption , ” observe Fonseca .
fertiliser market outlookNitrogen - based fertilizers are very explosive , given their intrinsic connection with oil and natural gasolene . Nevertheless , the necessity of buying back lose demand sent urea price on a down trend before they strike ammonia . The subsequent price mismatch led the ammonia / urea proportion to skyrocket . It was n’t until born gaseous state Price set out to pass up seasonally that ammonia followed suit , nearly halve the proportion . ( As a proxy for yield cost , a small ratio indicates that urea prices are more likely to remain stable . ) Global demand for urea will benefit from terms stableness around current levels and will slow rear throughout 2023 as it transitions from dull in 2022 to tidy in 2024 .
Unlike potassium hydroxide and nitrogen , phosphate prices soared last year after the war in Ukraine commence , despite the input ’s lower exposure to Russia . Consequently , phosphate using up during 2022 had a considerable and much anticipated drib . Despite step down need , prices remained at bring up degree due in part to reduce Chinese exports . Now that Formosan domestic consumption is coming out of point time of year , we might see Chinese volumes refund to the global market , calculate on the exportation parity , which might help down price apparent movement .
caustic potash prices continue to fall , but this is failing to stir demand . To be fair , the market place has found some equilibrium with some well - timed good demand . Both Brazil and India have pull in volume in recent months , yet that demand was ineffective to terminate potassium hydroxide prices from dropping , given the plentiful supply . Regarding the vast supply , reports indicate an growth in Belarusian activity in the globose food market despite EU and US authorization . If Belarus raises its market share , as most of the market expects , the increase in exportable volumes would fight prices down even further .
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